Canadian housing sales stronger
Monthly stats climb; annual results weaker
By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald - March 17, 2009
There were more preliminary signs Monday that the residential real estate market may be starting to pick up.
The Canadian Real Estate Association in releasing its monthly MLS numbers said housing activity in Canada was up in February from seasonally adjusted levels the previous month.
In Calgary, combined residential sales (including single-family homes and condominiums) numbered 1,392 units in February compared with 928 units in January. The average sale price last month was$370,198, up slightly from $362,143 in January. New listings for February were 3,662 units compared with 3,767 units in January.
However, when compared with year-ago levels, the number of sales in February here fell by 35.6 per cent while the average sale price was down by 10.8 per cent and new listings were off by 29.3 per cent.
"The change from the January to February period (showed) there was some strengthening in the marketplace," said Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. "But I would say it would be a little too early to say that the market has bottomed and is turning up now. There have been some positive developments, though, with a pick up in sales here in Calgary. And prices appear to be a little more stable. But it's only a month of data."
Louie said CMHC expects the market to expand at some point, but it's early to make that call now.
"There are positive signs in the marketplace now. In Calgary, for example, it was only a month ago that we had 10 months' of supply (in houses for sale).Now it's been cut to between five and six months. It has improved. But still the supply levels are elevated and we're still seeing demand reduced compared to the past."
Louie said the CMHC projections are for the market to turn this year and 2010 will be a recovery year.
In February, MLS sales in Alberta were down 29.8 per cent from a year ago to 3,231 units and the average sale price fell by 9.2 per cent to $326,785.
CREA, which represents real estate agents, said 28,669 homes traded hands across the country on a seasonally adjusted basis--8.6 per cent above seasonally adjusted levels in January, and the first monthly increase in activity since September 2008. Seasonally adjusted activity in February also surpassed levels reported in November and December of 2008.
Monthly seasonal increases in activity were largest in British Columbia (14.4 per cent), Nova Scotia (12.7 per cent),and Alberta (11.9 per cent).
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) transactions numbered 25,373 units in February. This was 31 per cent below MLS sales levels a year earlier, but it is the smallest year-over-year decline since October 2008.
In a research note, Sal Guatieri, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the Canadian housing downturn is more than a year old, with sales dropping by over 40 per cent and average sale prices off by 13 per cent.
"A comparison of recent trends in housing indicators with historical benchmarks suggests the year-long correction in Canada's housing market is around the halfway mark,"said Guatieri. "Growing job losses and an overhang of unsold homes will continue to depress activity and prices this year.
"However, barring a long recession, the improvement in affordability will support demand, which in turn should stabilize prices and anchor a modest recovery in home-building next year."
CREA said the supply of homes for sale nationally remains high, but has been trending lower.
The housing supply is expected to continue easing, but it will take time before it realigns with lower demand, said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump. "Economic uncertainty is keeping home buyers in a cautious mood, so homes are taking longer to sell than in recent years."
The national average sales price was $281,972 in February, 9.2 per cent below February 2008.That's smaller than yearover-year declines observed in the past four months. It is also the first time that the year-over-year decline in the national average price has decelerated since July.
The national average price continues to be pushed down-ward by lower activity in some of Canada's more expensive housing markets and by fewer transactions in higher price ranges.
"Consumer confidence will continue to be depressed by a barrage of negative economic news in the months ahead," said Klump. "Heightened job insecurity will keep many potential homebuyers on the sidelines. Those who are confident about their job situation will benefit from improving affordability in a number of housing markets."
By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald - March 17, 2009
There were more preliminary signs Monday that the residential real estate market may be starting to pick up.
The Canadian Real Estate Association in releasing its monthly MLS numbers said housing activity in Canada was up in February from seasonally adjusted levels the previous month.
In Calgary, combined residential sales (including single-family homes and condominiums) numbered 1,392 units in February compared with 928 units in January. The average sale price last month was$370,198, up slightly from $362,143 in January. New listings for February were 3,662 units compared with 3,767 units in January.
However, when compared with year-ago levels, the number of sales in February here fell by 35.6 per cent while the average sale price was down by 10.8 per cent and new listings were off by 29.3 per cent.
"The change from the January to February period (showed) there was some strengthening in the marketplace," said Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. "But I would say it would be a little too early to say that the market has bottomed and is turning up now. There have been some positive developments, though, with a pick up in sales here in Calgary. And prices appear to be a little more stable. But it's only a month of data."
Louie said CMHC expects the market to expand at some point, but it's early to make that call now.
"There are positive signs in the marketplace now. In Calgary, for example, it was only a month ago that we had 10 months' of supply (in houses for sale).Now it's been cut to between five and six months. It has improved. But still the supply levels are elevated and we're still seeing demand reduced compared to the past."
Louie said the CMHC projections are for the market to turn this year and 2010 will be a recovery year.
In February, MLS sales in Alberta were down 29.8 per cent from a year ago to 3,231 units and the average sale price fell by 9.2 per cent to $326,785.
CREA, which represents real estate agents, said 28,669 homes traded hands across the country on a seasonally adjusted basis--8.6 per cent above seasonally adjusted levels in January, and the first monthly increase in activity since September 2008. Seasonally adjusted activity in February also surpassed levels reported in November and December of 2008.
Monthly seasonal increases in activity were largest in British Columbia (14.4 per cent), Nova Scotia (12.7 per cent),and Alberta (11.9 per cent).
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) transactions numbered 25,373 units in February. This was 31 per cent below MLS sales levels a year earlier, but it is the smallest year-over-year decline since October 2008.
In a research note, Sal Guatieri, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the Canadian housing downturn is more than a year old, with sales dropping by over 40 per cent and average sale prices off by 13 per cent.
"A comparison of recent trends in housing indicators with historical benchmarks suggests the year-long correction in Canada's housing market is around the halfway mark,"said Guatieri. "Growing job losses and an overhang of unsold homes will continue to depress activity and prices this year.
"However, barring a long recession, the improvement in affordability will support demand, which in turn should stabilize prices and anchor a modest recovery in home-building next year."
CREA said the supply of homes for sale nationally remains high, but has been trending lower.
The housing supply is expected to continue easing, but it will take time before it realigns with lower demand, said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump. "Economic uncertainty is keeping home buyers in a cautious mood, so homes are taking longer to sell than in recent years."
The national average sales price was $281,972 in February, 9.2 per cent below February 2008.That's smaller than yearover-year declines observed in the past four months. It is also the first time that the year-over-year decline in the national average price has decelerated since July.
The national average price continues to be pushed down-ward by lower activity in some of Canada's more expensive housing markets and by fewer transactions in higher price ranges.
"Consumer confidence will continue to be depressed by a barrage of negative economic news in the months ahead," said Klump. "Heightened job insecurity will keep many potential homebuyers on the sidelines. Those who are confident about their job situation will benefit from improving affordability in a number of housing markets."
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